It’s Time for Emilio Pagán to be Pa-GONE

Emilio Pagán blew his third save opportunity in 2026, and it's become clear to everyone except Terry Francona that change is needed.

If there’s one thing Emilio Pagán has never been known for, it’s generating ground balls.  For a pitcher who plays half his games in the tight confines of Great American Ballpark, one wouldn’t think that was a recipe for success.

Incredibly, though, Pagán was serviceable for the Cincinnati Reds last year.  More than serviceable, in fact – a 2.88 ERA and 32 saves equaled one of the best seasons for a closer in the National League.

That was 2025.  In 2026, it’s all fallen apart.

Surprising?  Not exactly.  Frustrating?  Absolutely, and especially after Terry Francona’s comments after Pagán’s third blown save of the season, courtesy of Michael Conforto’s first walk-off home run of his career for the Chicago Cubs.

“I’m not sure I care about (results) a month ago,” Francona said to reporters after the game, when asked about Pagán’s rocky start to the year.

Yikes.  I get not wanting to overreact to a small sample size, but come on – the season is barely more than a month old!  He might as well have said he doesn’t care about Pagán’s results, period.

What really sinks Francona’s case, though, is that none of this is new.  Pagán isn’t suddenly having trouble keeping the ball in the ballpark – it’s been a hallmark of his career.

After last night’s game, Pagán is allowing 1.93 home runs per nine innings.  That’s not good, and it’s not even the worst rate of his career, but it gets uglier.  Pagán’s ground-ball rate is in the 2nd percentile among all pitchers.  His hard-hit rate is in the 1st percentile.  His average exit velocity is in the 9th percentile.  Basically, when hitters get a hold of one of Pagán’s pitches (which they do quite frequently), they hit it hard and they hit it in the air.  That’s a frightening, and unsustainable, recipe for a closer.

Again, none of this is particularly new.  Pagán’s current ground-ball rate is 22.7%.  He’s never had a ground-ball rate better than 40.5%, and that was four years ago.  This would be, however, the lowest ground-ball rate of his career.

His 56.8% hard-hit rate is career-high, but he’s had his struggles in this department too.  In his 10 years in the majors, Pagán has finished in the bottom 8% among pitchers in that category four times.  He almost certainly would have been in that group in 2024 (50.5% hard-hit rate), but he didn’t play enough to qualify.

Batters have a 91.6 average exit velocity off Pagán in 2026, which is (you guessed it) another career-high.  His strikeout percentage is a career-low.  His expected ERA is a career-high.  I could go on and on.

It’s the home runs, though, that are simply unforgivable.  Among all relievers with three or more saves, Pagán’s three home runs allowed is tied with Kenley Jansen and Seranthony Domínguez for the most.  It’s not that Pagán’s home run tendencies are unique, but the bigger problem is he isn’t making up for it in other ways.  Jansen and Domínguez both have strikeout rates above 27%.  Pagán’s is an unimpressive 17.7%.

He isn’t missing bats, and when hitters are making contact, they’re hitting it with authority and into the air.  That is simply not closer material.  And it’s not like the Reds have a shortage of options.

Graham Ashcraft has a sterling 1.02 ERA this year and an incredible 60.0% ground-ball rate that’s in the 95th percentile.  That’s closer material.

Lefty Brock Burke has a 3.38 ERA and a 33.3% whiff rate (91st percentile).  Fellow lefty Sam Moll has a 1.84 ERA and a 22.2% hard-hit rate (98th percentile).  Connor Phillips’s walk problems are scary (23.2% walk rate, 1st percentile), but he might have the best raw stuff in the entire Reds bullpen.  Any one of them would be better answers as the Reds closer, but Francona – at least for now – seems to lack any urgency about the situation.

The NL Central, though, isn’t getting any easier.  With the loss last night to the Cubs, the Reds have now lost four-straight and sit in outright third-place in the division after entering the weekend in a tie for first.  Every team in the NL Central has a winning record, and so far, the Reds are 1 - 6 against divisional opponents.

The Reds have had a great start to their season, but they aren’t talented enough to be giving away winnable games – especially against divisional opponents.  Pagán has become a problem, but it’s an easily fixable one.  Pagán was only made the Reds’s primary closer after former closer Alexis Díaz fell apart.  Pagán had 33 saves across an 8-year career prior to 2025, and after one season with 32 saves, he’s apparently untouchable?

Absurd.  Relief pitching is notoriously fickle.  There’s still a role for Pagán on this team, but the closer role should be earned, and this year, he hasn’t earned it.  The solution to the Reds’s closer issues is probably already on the roster – they just have to have the courage to find it.