Why the Bengals Shouldn't Consider Dillon Thieneman at #10

Oregon's Dillon Thieneman is a fine player, but it would be a mistake for the Bengals to draft him with the 10th pick.

The Cincinnati Bengals kicked off free agency with a bang, signing Boye Mafe and Bryan Cook shortly after the starting gun sounded.  The Cook signing, in particular, was a welcome one.

For two years, Bengals fans (and the Bengals themselves, frankly) were subjected to watching Geno Stone look utterly helpless.  From abundant missed tackles to copious missed assignments, Stone seemed, well, too often missing in action.  Signing Cook turns safety from a would-be weakness into a should-be strength.

With Cook in the fold, alongside fourth-year safety Jordan Battle, who the Bengals coaches have made a point to praise this offseason, and fellow free agent addition Kyle Dugger, the safety position is finally, for the first time in years, in a good spot.

So, why would the Bengals be looking to add a safety with a top ten pick?

And furthermore, if the Bengals were going to take a safety with the 10th pick, why would it be for anyone other than Caleb Downs?

Short answer: they shouldn’t, and they almost certainly won’t.

Recently, there’s been a lot of buzz about a different safety prospect – Oregon’s Dillon Thieneman.  He was a combine star, running a blazing 40-time of 4.35 along with a 41” vertical leap.  And he wasn’t just good in workout clothes either.

Thieneman was consistently productive as a three-year starter for Purdue and then his final season at Oregon.  As a player who can patrol deep middle of the field, Thieneman showed off impressive range, instincts, and willingness to get involved in run support.  His athleticism opened a lot of eyes, but it was his tape that made him an NFL prospect in the first place.

But he is not worthy of a top ten pick – not in this draft, not in any draft.

Thieneman might very well be a good player – heck, he might even be great – but the NFL Draft doesn’t happen in a vacuum.  There’s a limit to the “best player available” philosophy.  After all, if for some bizarre reason the Raiders pass on Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the first pick, and eight subsequent teams also pass on him, the Bengals are certainly not going to be the team that stops his slide.  Joe Burrow might be injury-prone, but he’s one of the best QBs in the league and using a top-ten pick on a backup QB would be a waste.

The same logic applies to Thieneman.  The Bengals have already invested quite a bit in safety, and it’s not a premium position.  Cook’s contract makes him the 12th highest-paid safety in the league.  Any safety the Bengals take at #10 would immediately (thanks to the NFL’s rookie wage scale) become one the 27 highest-paid safeties in the league.

There’s a reason NFL teams have devalued the safety position.  Players who operate so far from the line of scrimmage often have the least impact on wins and losses – and Thieneman, who projects as a free safety who plays in the deepest part of the field, would be the furthest away of them all.

This isn’t to say elite safeties can’t make an impact.  After all, Earl Thomas, who won a Super Bowl with the Legion of Boom Seattle Seahawks, was an essential – arguably vital – part of their championship defense.  But Thomas, as great as he was, wasn’t selected in the top ten, sliding to pick #14 in 2010 despite an outstanding career for the Texas Longhorns.

And the safeties that have been drafted in the top ten?  It’s a mixed bag.

There’s only been one safety drafted in the top ten in the last ten years: Jamal Adams in 2017.  And even though he did make a Pro Bowl early in his career, he was eventually shifted to linebacker because his skills in the passing game were severely lacking.  Before that it was Mark Barron in 2012, who also eventually moved to linebacker.

In Thomas’ own draft class, the Kansas City Chiefs made Eric Berry the #5 pick in the 2010 Draft, and even though Berry was a great player, he never became the transcendent talent many expected.

That’s three safeties taken in the top ten in the last 16 years, and two were eventually converted to linebacker.  So, yeah…mixed bag.

Of course, Thieneman is not in danger of becoming a linebacker, but that’s as much to do with his less-than-spectacular ability in run support as his middling size.

But if you’re going to draft a safety in the top ten, wouldn’t you like that player to be good in all areas of the game?

The only safety worth taking in the top ten this year is Downs, and even that wouldn’t be an ideal scenario for the Bengals.  The Bengals need impact players on defense, and even for a prospect as great as Downs, it’s just really hard to make a big impact playing so far from the line of scrimmage.

Downs, at least, is somewhat of an exception. He lined up all over the field in his college career, from deep safety, to in the box, in the slot, and even on the boundary against wide receivers.  He isn’t just a safety – he’s a unique, movable chess piece who can fill just about any role at any time.

What makes the idea of taking a safety in the top ten even more complicated is the fact that safety is a pretty deep position in this class.  Someone like Emmanuel McNeil-Warren could slide to the second-round.  Guys like Bud Clark, AJ Haulcey and Jalon Kilgore will likely be Day 2 picks.  None has the athleticism of Thieneman or the all-around excellence of Downs, but all could be quality starters in the NFL.

But critically, the Bengals don’t need a starting safety.  That shouldn’t stop them from taking Downs if he’s there at ten, but that’s because he’s good enough to find his way onto the field one way or another.  For Thieneman, it’s no guarantee.

It’s not that Thieneman isn’t talented enough – it’s that the value and the fit isn’t there.

Having a top ten pick is an opportunity to add supremely talented players at a premium position.  Guys like Thieneman can be found in free agency.  Another Thieneman will likely come along in the draft – maybe even next year.  But a potential game-wrecking defensive end or a long-time starter at offensive tackle?  Those are much, much harder to come by.

A team with Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins shouldn’t be drafting in the top ten, but they are.  This is (hopefully) the last time the Bengals will be in this position.  This is their opportunity to find a defensive superstar – the Bengals can’t pass that up for a one-dimensional safety.